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地球系统科学系列讲座:The math of soil

2022-04-12

时间: 2022年4月14日(星期四)上午9:00 

参会方式:ZOOM(会议号:94278012898) 

报告人: Dr. Kathe Todd-Brown,美国佛罗里达大学

    Dr. Kathe Todd-Brown 长期从事陆地生态系统碳循环模拟研究,较为系统提出了现有地球系统模型中有机碳模拟存在的不足,致力于降低碳过程模拟的不确定性。通过和全球学者广泛合作,在Nature等期刊发表大量论文,Google Scholar引用近30000次。

报告摘要:

     Soil carbon stocks have the potential to be a strong source or sink for carbon dioxide over the next century, playing a critical role in climate change. Yet there was little agreement on soil carbon stocks between 11 Earth system models in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5. Why do such large differences exist between the models and are they all right?

      We were able to explain most of the underlaying simulation behavior using a reduced complexity model. In general, differences were explained by parameterization and inputs (mass and temperature), not underlaying model structure. Furthermore, this variation under-represents real world uncertainties, implying that the soil carbon response to climate change is extremely uncertain over the next century.

      What else can we do to extend these models to better explain carbon dynamics in fire systems? What about wetland systems? 



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